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Forecasting China’s Labor Supply and Demand and the Unemployment Structure in the 13th Five-Year-Plan Period
Zhang Juwei, Cai Yifei
Population Research 2016, 40 (
1
): 38-56.
Abstract
(
150
)
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The changes in labor supply and demand are important factors affecting economic growth.The purpose of this paper is to predict and analyze the trends in China’s labor supply and demand during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and the longer period in the future.The scale and struc- ture of the annual new entrants of labor force are predicted by accounting the numbers who are leaving from various stages of education,while trends of labor demand are predicted according to employment elasticity from the experience of industrialization of developed countries.The results show that,during the 13th Five-Year Plan period,the scale of the new added labor would decrease slightly,with an aver- age annual increment of around 15. 68 million.At the same time,labor demand would increase stead- ily,with annually 15. 42 million employment opportunities.Labor supply and demand would be roughly balanced; however,there would be increasing structural contradictions of the labor market.Based on the analysis of labor supply and demand,we provide an estimation of the unemployment scale of the 40’s and 50’s generations,migrant workers and college graduates,and discuss policy suggestions on promoting employment of college graduates.
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Forecasting China’s Labor Supply and Demand and the Unemployment Structure in the 13th Five-Year-Plan Period
Zhang Juwei, Cai Yifei
Population Research 2016, 40 (
1
): 38-56.
Abstract
(
353
)
PDF
(1354KB)(
2135
)
Knowledge map
Save
The changes in labor supply and demand are important factors affecting economic growth.The purpose of this paper is to predict and analyze the trends in China’s labor supply and demand during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and the longer period in the future.The scale and structure of the annual new entrants of labor force are predicted by accounting the numbers who are leaving from various stages of education,while trends of labor demand are predicted according to employment elasticity from the experience of industrialization of developed countries.The results show that,during the 13th Five-Year Plan period,the scale of the new added labor would decrease slightly,with an aver- age annual increment of around 15. 68 million.At the same time,labor demand would increase steadily,with annually 15. 42 million employment opportunities.Labor supply and demand would be roughly balanced; however,there would be increasing structural contradictions of the labor market.Based on the analysis of labor supply and demand,we provide an estimation of the unemployment scale of the 40’s and 50’s generations,migrant workers and college graduates,and discuss policy suggestions on promoting employment of college graduates.
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Balanced egional Development in China: Demographic and Economic Distribution Mismatch
Zhang Juwei, Cai Yifei
Population Research 2013, 37 (
6
): 3-16.
Abstract
(
1973
)
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2064
)
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Unbalanced regional development can be examined by looking at the mismatch between demographic distribution and economic distribution across the regions Using the indicators measuring the degree of mismatch between demographic and economic distribution of the regions in China,this paper revisits the disparities and their changes in regional development,identifying a converging trend in the regional differences after 2003. By decomposing the regional differences into contributions of demographic and economic concentrations,this paper also explores the mechanisms of changing regional differences,and concludes that the changes of regional differences are more attributable to the effects of economic gathering than to those of demographic gathering Demographic concentration is playing an increasingly important role in reducing the regional differences with reducing barriers to population mobility The paper also discusses policy approaches addressing balanced regional development in China.
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